All these facts show the undue predominance of hope in our estimates of the future. Wherever, then, the profits of an employment are occasionally large, but precarious, they are certain to be over-rated, and consequently to be over-crowded with competitors; while, on the other hand, those occupations in which the gains are gradual and moderate, are more certain, and above the general average. Hence it is that there is a larger proportion of fortunes made, and fewer failures, in the business of a butcher, baker, tanner, or grocer, than in that of a great ship-owner, or merchant, engaged in foreign commerce.

In all these modifications of the rewards of labor, we see the governing influence of the law of supply and demand; and that every circumstance which has been mentioned as either increasing or diminishing those rewards, has done so by lessening or augmenting the supply of labor required, and thus affecting the demand, or number of competitors.

Sixthly. The five preceding modes of influencing the price of labor are substantially those laid down by Adam Smith, who first introduced them to the notice of the political economist. But there is yet another, in which the anomalous reward received for labor falls under neither of those five classes, and which can be referred only to custom. Thus, in the State of Maryland, it is usual to give large gratuitous fees to the clerk who issues marriage-licenses, while, in most of the States, extra fees are given on such occasions only to the officiating clergyman. In the city of Washington, it is the usage, on the death of a member of Congress, for each hackney-coach in the city to attend the funeral procession, for which service, instead of the ordinary fare of fifty cents, five dollars is always paid. There are also settled fees for certain professional services, which are commonly very disproportionate to the time and skill exerted. As these rewards of labor exceed the ordinary average, they naturally tend to increase the number of competitors, and, by a correspondent lessening of profits, restore the just equilibrium between wages and labor.

In all manufactures there are three elements which combine to determine the market value of the finished fabric. These are the raw material, the labor, and the machinery; and they occupy very different proportions in different species of manufactures. Thus, in cotton fabrics, in which the labor is performed chiefly by machinery, and is, consequently, cheaper, the raw material is by much the most valuable part.

In those of wool, the raw material is also the most costly, but the value of the labor and machinery expended approaches that of the raw material.

In those of iron, there is a very great diversity, according to the character of the fabric. In small articles, such as needles, watch-springs, and the like, the cost of the raw material is insignificant; but in anchors, pieces of ordnance, and the iron bars of a railway, it exceeds that of the labor and machinery.

In manufactures of leather, the value of the labor and of the raw material are generally nearly equal.

In silk manufactures, the material, which is itself the result of much human labor and manipulation, is always an important element; but in its most costly fabrics, labor is by far the largest element, as in the Gobelin tapestry, velvets, and rich brocades.

In all manufactures of pottery and glass, the raw material is of little value, except in making porcelain; when the kaolin earth, which is found in few places, is brought from a great distance. There is a vein of this material extending through the States of Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, which will doubtless one day give rise to extensive factories of its beautiful wares.

In the manufacture of books, the cost of the principal material, paper, is proportionally small; but the paper itself has been fabricated of old rags, some pounds of which, costing but a few cents, when converted into a book, may sell, in consequence of the labor bestowed on it, for as many dollars. The very coarse paper made of oakum, or old hempen rope, is manufactured into various articles of papier maché of great beauty and cost.

But it will be no long time before the United States must of necessity fabricate its own manufactures. They cannot always derive their chief supplies, as at present, from foreign countries.

Commerce, we know, is an exchange of equivalents - of domestic for foreign products. Such an exchange is indispensable to its existence. At present, we obtain all our fine manufactures, and part of the coarse ones, in return for our agricultural products sent abroad. But this commerce will be greatly modified by our increase of population. Our present numbers are 30,000,000; which, in fifty years, by two duplications, will be 120,000,000. They will consequently then need manufactures to four times their present amount, which will require a correspondent increase of our exports.

It may doubtless be perfectly competent for the workshops of Europe to furnish this fourfold supply, but how is it to be paid for? Will Europe be then able to purchase four times as much cotton, and tobacco, and other products of our agriculture? That is not to be supposed. The consumption of cotton seems, of all those products, to be the most susceptible of a great increase; and yet it would seem extravagant to estimate the increased consumption at one hundred per cent. But, admitting this twofold increase, we could obtain in this way only half of our required supply of manufactures, and employ only half the proportion of our agricultural labor that is employed at present, since cotton and tobacco will not be made beyond the existing market for them. The labor thus spared from agriculture will naturally be employed to meet the increased demand for manufactures. Commerce being no longer able to furnish these in sufficiency, we shall manufacture for ourselves.

The change here adverted to will be gradual. But even in twenty-four or twenty-five years, when our demands for manufactures will have doubled, the foreign market for our agricultural products may have increased in a much smaller proportion, by reason of the moderate increase of the population of Europe in that time, and consequently a part of the labor now employed in agriculture will have been even then diverted to manufactures.

There are several commodities of great utility and extensive consumption which have equal claims to be regarded as raw produce, and as the product of manufacturing industry. Of this character is sugar, whether made from the cane, the beet, or the maple. So of every kind of wine, of cider, of butter and cheese, and vegetable oils. Salt is also as much a product of mining as of manufacturing industry, as is also bar-iron, and other metallic products.