As to the future: We are naturally looking forward to extending commercial loans at paying rates of interest. Inasmuch as loans which are secured by assets not readily convertible into cash are those which are subject to higher rates, it seems probable that the field of the manufacturers, now representing fully one-half of the loans direct from banks, is entitled to the most careful consideration in the study of bank credits, and is of such importance as to demand of us intelligent examination and scientific treatment.

The manufacturers of the United States, numbering upwards of 500,000 concerns, have a gross business of, probably, $13,000,000,000, requiring an investment in plant and working capital of $10,000,000,000, the working capital being something under $500,000,000 - a volume of business and extent of investment which is stupendous in the extreme. The manufacturer is essentially the prime mover of commerce, and has to carry a large investment in plant and machinery. Invention and improvement of machinery and products are continuous, thus making large inroads into his sinking fund for renewals and scrapped machinery. He must maintain large stocks of raw material and be secure in the continuity of his supplies. He must carry large values of goods in process. He must risk the fluctuations in the cost of raw materials and sales value of his finished goods. He must take chances on changes in style and be at the mercy of the caprice of fashion. All of these considerations should lead us to count upon the manufacturer as substantial, conservative, keen after business, acute for economies; and the extent of his investment should give him such an intense personal interest in his enterprise that we should expect to find him the most promising of our applicants for loans. But to handle this business safely and wisely demands accuracy in our credit methods.